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Antigua Records Negative Economic Growth

Negative Economic Growth Antigua St John's - With a projected economic growth of 2.26 percent for the year 2012, Antigua & Barbuda staggers behind its sister ECCU nations as being one of only two nations to record negative growth so far for the year.

Advisor to the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) Sybil Welsh told media operatives in a banking-journalism training seminar on Thursday that following a recent assessment Antigua & Barbuda was found to have recorded a negative point two four (-0.24) percent growth for the year.

St. Kitts is the only other country in the OECS to record negative growth this year, with negative point four five (-0.45) percent growth so far.

When contacted for a comment on the latest revelation finance minister Harold Lovell first sought clarification on the source of the figures, before noting: “In which case I cannot comment. These are not official numbers.”

Economic growth and GDP are measured by a nation’s level of consumption, investment, government spending and net exports, and Antigua & Barbuda has declined noticeably in all areas.

Growth in other parts of the region made available shows Dominica gaining 1.74 percent, Grenada with 0.69 percent, Montserrat with 1.9 percent, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines with 0.12 percent. All these figures reflect poor economies with all falling short of the 6-7 percent needed to be considered on the road to recovery.



“These figures are the latest data acquired by the technical team… The data is both quantitative and qualitative,” Walsh said, adding that during the teams’ missions governments and other agencies are interviewed about their growth projections, current economic activity and other factors.

Walsh explained that Antigua & Barbuda, unlike most of other Caribbean territories, relies heavily on tourism and taxes to carry its economy. Expectations of a recovering US and European Market are critical, and these estimates can change based on new developments in the market.

“Tourism is depressed. If you don't have a secured job the last thing you are thinking about is a vacation in the happy Caribbean,” Walsh said. “Manufacturing firms out there have also downsized because demand is reduced. Some (countries) are in challenging fiscal situations because governments earn their money from taxation and you cannot tax what does not exist, or what doesn’t make a profit or doesn’t move.”

Media probing for ECCB officials’ insights on the subject of the Antigua & Barbuda government’s move to introduce increased taxes on its already fragile tourism sector was met with great resistance and suggestions for referrals.

Walsh said that based on these new numbers it would be common to see Antigua & Barbuda and other nations revising their projections to line up with the realities of a non-performing economy.

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33 Comments In This Article   

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@WADA

#33 ANTIGUAN WOMAN » 2012-07-10 12:00

We cannot continue on the road we are now,with the UPP at the helm.It is rather small minded to attribute all our troubles to the Global crisis.The Govt has clearly shown that it is incapable of managing the econnomy,No one with a rational mind expect any Govt to make everything Champagne& Roses.although it seem to have been an expectation while the ALP was in Govt.but when you have a Govt who has almost completed two five yr terms and have nothing to boast of except Scandals,high unemployment, the highest utility rates in the region, unprecendented levels of taxation,a mountain of debts with nothing to show for it,businesses closing doors all over and to top it all off no accountability to us,we have no other choice except to vote them out.Since when the private sector and us as individuals can save an economy from a Govt who only knows how to take and destroy? What are your suggestions??
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ANTIGUAN WOMAN

Solution to our woes?

#32 wada » 2012-07-09 10:43

Is the solution simply to vote out the UPP? Will that return economic growth and everyone will be once again smiling and happy? We (the world) are in a financial down spiral, the financial world took on high risks and failed us. They were then bailed out (US) and now countries (GREECE,SPAIN, ITALY?) are also looking for bailouts.

Antigua and other tourism based economies suffer due to less visitors. Governments in turn raise taxes, which means less disposable income for the middle class who then cut back, shutting down the next level. So, I cut my own g**, wash my car, and iron my clothes as I can no longer afford to pay/employ persons to do these jobs. What meaningful change can we (individuals, private sector and government) do to reverse/improve this?

I don't have all the answers but would like to see suggestions?
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wada

Whatever will be #2

#31 Observer » 2012-07-07 12:53

As Baldwin said extinct. We will soon see other sectors extinct. Lets keep our focus on the latest anounced so called housing project. Can we see what Baldwin signed us into again. What will this company put in as real FDI. Are we giving them land again at peppercorn prices without a performance clause. If Antiguans do not have money to take out mortgages then who are they catering for? I can tell you nothing new to this system. it's only economical is major developments. like 5000 houses at once, building a complete community. That is not how we build. Sorry but I believe a project doomed to fail.
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Observer

Whatever will be #1

#30 Observer » 2012-07-07 12:53

Sad that these economic analysis do not mean much to most people. Eventhough we have many young professionals no one really takes on the government on these economic figures. But in laymans term we are getting poorer. You might have a good salary now but your money will buy less and less each month and each year. So you will want to make even more money. Then you become to expensive and etc. etc. That is when the rich will get richer and the poor get poorer. But who cares. The poor men still enjoying him/herself this carrnival going to all the fetes and drinking and having fun. Life is good. But we can't pay the mortgage and the landlord has not been paid for months. And the car will be repossed soon. The economy then is as good as death.
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Observer

Audrey

#29 audrey taylor » 2012-07-07 10:36

:oops: In Antigua and Barbuda there is very little by way of social benefits if you dont work here you dont eat, if you get sick and you dont have a medical benefit card or your are elderly or a minor you die. There are so subsidised housing for the poor, if you cant pay rent and your family cant accomodate you, you are homeless. If you are out of work there are no unemployment benefits or even programs to assist a person with getting employment. You must think you are still in North America . WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!!!
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audrey taylor

Audrey

#28 audrey taylor » 2012-07-06 20:37

The Upp government is an complete failure , they should all be jailed for fraudulent transfer of the people funds for their own use> I hope if the they are voted out that there are laws in place for them to forfeit their unjustly obtained wealth
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audrey taylor

Asarni Thomas - school meals mess

#27 tenman » 2012-07-06 18:42

Asarni Thomas since you want comments on the school meals program, here is an article on the badly designed program with many comments: www.caribarena.com/antigua/news/economy/10181-school-meals-now-selling-food.html


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tenman

Asarni Thomas - thank your stars

#26 tenman » 2012-07-06 18:31

Asarni Thomas, the school meals program is one of my pet peeves with this government.It was badly designed (i have posted on this before). There should have been no government kitchen, which necessitated the hiring of more persons to add to an already bloated public sector, and millions being spent on equipment. Instead the function should have been outsourced to the private sector. There was also a situation where farmers were overcharging for produce. When Joanne Messiah was in charge she once stated that due to excess capacity they were looking at having the facility cater for functions. Winston Williams has now stated that they will now sell lunches to government workers. What you basically have in the school meals program is the unfair process of government competing against the private sector. This program has aided in the closing of some local eateries and is another example of value destruction and aids in our GDP decline. You should be glad I did not comment on the article you mentioned

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tenman

Antigua economy will grow again

#25 sitco » 2012-07-06 18:22

Antigua economy will grow again when we get rid of the UPP government. It happens before , 1971 to 1976 the economy was on a decline, 1977 to 2004 positive growth , with rapid growth during the 1980's. If you don't believe me, go and research it yourself.
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sitco

@ persons saying UPP can't manage Antigua.

#24 Asarni Thomas » 2012-07-06 18:08

I read an article (http://www.caribarena.com/antigua/business/business-news/100964-school-meals-to-increase-business-with-local-suppliers.html) where the School Meals Programme is set to increase supplies from local suppliers.

I only thing I cared to point out in my post is that there are no comments on that article, however, we have a negative article and this apparently is best thing to comment on.

I find is quite sad that people CLAIMING they really want the best for Antigua use smear, incomplete issues or in other words FEAR to convince willing listeners. Coming to Caribbean Arena simply to look for a negative article to comment on while ignoring positive ones only shows your agenda isn't comprehensive to the well being of Antigua.
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Asarni Thomas

@ the person saying UPP must go.

#23 Asarni Thomas » 2012-07-06 17:48

May I ask your view on the performance of our other Caribbean brothers and sisters?

The reason I ask is because I want to see if you are unbiased fair and objective, or if you are just here to campaign.
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Asarni Thomas

@ Fed Up

#22 Skyewill » 2012-07-06 13:10

you got it right on the money and you are right this is way before UPP and have been horrible cause back then the dictators where even more brutal.
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Skyewill

@GoodJobBob

#21 oversee » 2012-07-06 12:12

I am now firmly convinced your ignorance is boundless and as for your stupidity, let's move on to other things such as your constant whine : "
Letting the British kick Antigua out of the UK" blah blah blah. It is no doubt a hard job(?) trying to penetrate the sawdust surrounded by your cranium but there's no harm in trying, so here goes. Antigua was never in the UK as you like to put it. Antigua and Barbuda was, like many other colonies, a part of the British Empire which then became the British Commenwealth of Nations commonly known as the Commonwealth. It is still a member of that community. Antigua was never kicked out of anything although I venture to say some good would be done if it were to kick you out of its territory. The kicking out which you might have in mind was when your benefactor Stanford (when are you going to have tea and cakes with him again?) was kicked out of Montserrat by the British (any idea why, you idiot?) and you have since been reduced to a life of torment brought about by one of the Seven Deadly Sins; you know which one I am referring to. That's enough of educating you for today, you silly whatnot. Get back to the back of the class!!
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oversee

@ Morris

#20 Skyewill » 2012-07-06 12:02

Based on his reply to me as you can tell he did not understand the entire concept, That OK we should still give her love.
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Skyewill

@Barbuda - Son of Soi

#19 Skyewill » 2012-07-06 11:59

And when you are working on the computer do you burn the food on the stove? It researched today and still in effect. walking and chewing comes from long term memory they are on automatic. Did gravity exists before it was discovered. Was Antigua there before Columbus discovered the new world? 1900's are modern times
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Skyewill

RE: Antigua Records Negative Economic Growth

#18 Fed Up » 2012-07-06 11:24

downto earth, "Ridiculously high crime rate?????????? where do you live????? are you for real???" - Where else in the world can you find a population of 80,000 people with the same crime figures as Antigua ?? Our population is smaller than most medium sized towns in the rest of the world and they have nowhere near the crime we do.

Anyone that thinks the old party can do any better is an idiot, they had more years than this lot, in a better world economy and couldn't do it. Fifty years of inept management has bought antigua to this point, not just the past 8 years of UPP, or the previous 25 years whatever it is of ALP, it's the whole thing. Bad management, no bad isn't correct, lousily bad management by a bunch of inept, inexperienced dunces.
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Fed Up

Antigua Records Negative Economic Growth

#17 Anu » 2012-07-06 11:06

The UPP do not understand the fundamentals of running Govt. For the past 8 years, their mantra was tax and spend. They spend very little on ministries that would have a positive long term returns to the nation ( ie tourism, education). Spending millions on school fencing, borrowing millions of dollars from lending agencies for projects that Antiguans & Barbudans have no direct financial benefits to recieve and purchasing of buildings for prices above market value. Ministers travel all over the world representing Antigua, collecting perdium and return with little or no meaningful investment for the nation, Ambassadors collecting huge salaries and perks with no tangible investment to offer the country. The only time Govt address the nation, is when they intend to impose or increase more taxes on us. The present situation is inevitable judging UPP from their past to present. A UPP ambassader once stated that his Govt not in the habit of taking risk. I guess investing in Antiguans are to great a risk to take. And so here we are, like lost sheep in the wilderness. UPP has overstayed their welcome. They have created enough damage for the economy. Time for them to demit office.
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Anu

@ Barbuda - SoS (correction)

#16 Morris » 2012-07-06 10:55

A squad consist of 10-12 members; a mid-level noncommissioned officer (NCO usually a Staff Sergeant), a Corporal, and 10 lower enlisted members or Privates. From your post, it would appear that a fire team is a squad and that is most certainly not correct. Hope that helps.
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Morris

Re. 2.26%

#15 Brainchild » 2012-07-06 10:49

Its possible for us to be experiencing negative year to date (ytd) and still accomplish a 2.26% positive growth by year end or the end of the evaluation period. Often times these figures can appear this way because we may not have uniform performance for each of the 12 months in a review period. Invariable growth figures are measured for a period one year with a similar period for the previous year. It is likely then that our GDP figures for the first six months of last year are showing a 0.26% decline. If there is any major economic activity for the remaining months of the year it may well compensate for the loss in the first 6 months of the year and actually represent a 2.26% for the entire year when compared to 2011.
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Brainchild

@Skyewill

#14 Barbuda - Son of Soi » 2012-07-06 09:45

Wilhelm Wundt (1832-1920), the father of the field of psychology theorized that it is impossible for the mind to multitask... yet I walk and chew gum; and sometimes drive and talk on the cellphone. No accidents so far. Your theory and analogy do not equate. wheel and come again.

Military doctrine, out of necessity, dating back centuries have determined that FOUR is the optimal number not one. Four members to a fire team. Four members to a Squad. Four Squads to a Platoon. Four Platoons to a Company. Four Companies to a Battalion. Even in corporate America, it has been determined that managing more than Four Units or Individuals leads to problems.

Your analogy does not hold water. Interesting that you went back to an age when mankind thought the world was flat, America was the far east, and sucking blood from wounds with leech would cure disease. Wheel and come again... even Freud's theories have been strongly criticized. Quote a theory from 2012; and you will be more plausible. By the way... I am sipping a coke and writing this response... at the same time.
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Barbuda - Son of Soi

De Real Observer

#13 Osbert R. Frederick » 2012-07-06 09:19

Harold Lovell, give us the official figures if the figures given are not official. This guy is one of a kind. He think he has a 'geological' spin to every thing. What can Antigua expect when the have have a Geography major running our finances? He then studied law and really was not in the top fifty percentile of our lawyers. We in Antigua like to say all manner of evil about other countries, but Guyana had positive growth througout the years when Dr. Dr. and his government kept blaming world economic conditions. guyana is expecting growth of over five percent this year. Cudos to the guyana government. Dr. Dr. and his government need to just pack up and go. This is why they don't want an inquiry into the Power Plant issue. They know that when the truth comes out, they will be out too.
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Osbert R. Frederick

@GoodJobBob

#12 down to earth » 2012-07-06 09:15

Ridiculously high crime rate?????????? where do you live????? are you for real???
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down to earth

Che

#11 tenman » 2012-07-06 09:10

Che, how can Antigua have growth of 2.26% if its growth is negative?

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tenman

Failure

#10 young analyst » 2012-07-06 08:43

How is it that you can have negative growth? can someone explain further please. Is it that the economy is so far in the negative? or the growth is that minimal? Is it just simply a failure of the government
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young analyst

Negative Growth Again

#9 Robinhood » 2012-07-06 08:14

Dr Dr and his finance minister would ran a crack selling business
In the ground, even though this type of product sells its self. Now
People, why everyone think they could save an already failing
Country. Any suggestion.
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Robinhood

Please proof read before posting

#8 Che » 2012-07-06 07:44

This writer needs to double check their grammar and sentence construction.

"With a projected economic growth of 2.26 percent for the year 2012, Antigua & Barbuda staggers behind its sister ECCU nations as being one of only two nations to record negative growth so far for the year." Who had growth of 2.26% A&B or ECCU nations ?

-che-
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Che

Square Pegs

#7 Skyewill » 2012-07-06 07:27

Wilhelm Wundt (1832-1920), the father of the field of psychology theorized that it is impossible for the mind to multitask. He discovered that it was impossible to pay attention to more than one stimulus or engage in more than 1 mental activity at precisely the same moment. A good example is using the cell phone while driving which is illegal in most places.( hundreds of accidents) So when you have too many projects, and Cronies holding 2 & 3 Chairmanships to major Boards they can’t do the job and they have not done the job according to this report. When fences have a higher priority than education. When instead of giving job to local teens and young adults you import foreign workers. BORROW, TAX, SPEND, WASTE……NO CREATIVATY
Learning how them mind works is also a part of therapy. When you understand how things work not just structurally but also functionally you become more aware and conscious.
REF:
Wundt W., (1963) Lectures on the minds of men and Animals, Leipiz: Engleman
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Skyewill

NOT SURPRISING

#6 tenman » 2012-07-06 07:21

Quote:
But while everyone was sleeping, his enemy came and sowed weeds among the wheat, and went away Matthew 13:25
No one should be surprised. The truth is we have no program in place to reverse the negative trend only worsen it. With the soon to be implemented new travel tax, things will simply get worse. Don't take my word for it, the PM himself stated during the debate for newest tax (Airport Administration Charge Tax), that in the beginning there will be a fall off, but we should not worry because Antigua sells itself. The hoteliers, and IATA have projected it will be negative. Time for people to wake up and recognize who the real enemies are.
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tenman

RE: Antigua Records Negative Economic Growth

#5 R. Berry » 2012-07-06 07:17

"Walsh explained that Antigua & Barbuda, unlike most of other Caribbean territories, relies heavily on tourism and taxes to carry its economy. Expectations of a recovering US and European Market are critical, and these estimates can change based on new developments in the market."

And with more and more companies and people earning less, the Government will in-turn earn lesser and lesser taxes....and the hole continues to deepen.

The objective of the Government is to create an environment that allows companies and people to grow and spend, which in-turn will earn the Government more and more taxes.

The Government cannot continue to stifle business and people, in an attempt to maintain and grow our welfare state to keep them in power.

It's simply unsustainable, the Government alone cannot be the only entity seem to be spending monies.
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R. Berry

UPP gotta go

#4 Hmmm » 2012-07-06 06:38

More reason why the UPP got to go. The double D PM is a failed experiment. Go back to union work and let someone with brains lead Antigua,
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Hmmm

Common denominator- University of the West Indies

#3 Skyewill » 2012-07-06 06:13

When it takes years to do something right,i.e CSME, what do you expect. When something doesn’t work for 50 years and you still doing it, what do you expect. When there is no real investment in education and I don't mean scholarships to Hyploxi to get BS in BS when the Island needs technology base instruction integration, what do you expect? What new innovative idea is coming from academia? NONE. When you start giving local people the same empowerment and concessions you give to Foreigners. THE MENTALITY: For the last 50 plus years as far back as I can remember, when I was a little boy I watched a public works workers, shovel garbage out of the gutter and pile it up on the sidewalk leave it for days, rain come and wash it back into the gutter. 50 years plus later they still don’t realize if they would just take it away the place would be cleaner and there would be less work next time. Same ** different day. When you export, jobs by borrowing large sums expecting tax payers to fund it without jobs. What do you expect? When government workers are not paid on time and the government is the largest employer, what do you espect?
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Skyewill

RE: Antigua Records Negative Economic Growth

#2 Fed Up » 2012-07-06 05:38

I'm not surprised at all, the projected 2.4 was pie in the sky anyway. The whole world is in recession, even big manufacturing countries are in recession. To believe that Antigua could achieve 6-7 percent growth (All these figures reflect poor economies with all falling short of the 6-7 percent needed to be considered on the road to recovery) is laughable, we don't make anything, we don't export anything of any great value. All we seem to do here is chat chat chat, apply multiple loads of ignorance, blame everybody else and expect the world to bail us out of the deep hole full of manure that we helped dig & fill ourselves. When are antiguan's & barbudans going to wake up & get real, get a mature outlook and start to help ourselves, this is 2012 and we're still living and believing in the dark ages. 2012 and we can't get reliable water or power supplies, 2012 and we can't get decent roads, 2012 and we still believe what our 'leaders' tell us dependant on the color of their flag. Wake up people.
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Fed Up

RE: Antigua Records Negative Economic Growth

#1 GoodJobBob » 2012-07-06 02:56

Between boycotts based on Stanford, Antigua's support of illegal whaling, the ridiculously high violent crime rate, and lack of any attractions other than beaches, rum and drugs, it's no wonder Antigua's tourism is sinking.

What is the plan? Manufacturing? Services (other than illegal extraterritoria l internet gambling)?

At the current rate, lobster and fish stocks will crash before the end of the decade and Antigua has yet to be able to provide for it's own food consumption.

Letting the British kick Antigua out of the UK seems to be a pretty bad decision right now. Unfortunately, as usual, it will be others who will have to take responsibility for this folly of "independence".
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GoodJobBob

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